01.29.11
Just four weeks into the new year, San Francisco has seen eight homicides - compared with five at this time last year. Oakland has already racked up 11, when last year at this time it had four. And San Jose has tallied seven homicides, compared with 20 for all of 2010.
San Francisco would have 10 homicides for 2011 if a woman whose body was set ablaze in the Lower Haight hadn't actually been killed in Sacramento, and if the district attorney's office hadn't determined it was self-defense when a man stabbed another to death after being bludgeoned in the head with a shovel.
The gruesome start to the year - including the brazen, broad-daylight slaying of a man in a Polk Street coffee shop - has police and City Hall officials concerned and confused.
There appears to be no rhyme or reason to the San Francisco slayings, said interim Police Chief Jeff Godown. Only one has been gang-related, and the only pattern seems to be that people are killing those they know rather than strangers.
"I'm worried when I see an uptick in San Francisco and Oakland and San Jose," Godown said. "You want to put context to the homicides and determine what is going on. ... I don't see any distinct patterns."
Mayor Ed Lee met with Godown this week to discuss the homicides, and believes community policing and crime prevention measures are essential, said Lee's spokesman, Tony Winnicker.
No overreaction
"The violent start to the new year is cause for concern, but we don't want to overreact at this point," Winnicker said, noting that 2010 and 2009 had the lowest homicide totals in decades. "We certainly want to maintain those trends, but we have to be somewhat realistic in our expectations. It's going to fluctuate from year to year."
The troubling January comes after San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose experienced two consecutive years of lower homicide rates - a trend seen nationwide. San Francisco had 50 slayings in 2010 and 45 in 2009, a major plunge from 96 in 2008.
Oakland had 90 homicides in 2010, down from 104 in 2009 and 123 in 2008. And San Jose had just 20 slayings last year - its fewest in 21 years.
Doing more with less
Officer Holly Joshi, an Oakland police spokeswoman, called the 11 homicides so far this year "definitely concerning."
"With the budget challenges and staffing crisis ... we are faced with having to try and do more with less," she wrote in an e-mail. "We are focused on intelligence-based policing and hot-spot policing now."
Sgt. Jason Dwyer of the San Jose Police Department said the department counts seven homicides for 2011, but there have actually been nine deaths at the hands of others. Two people died this year as a result of violent incidents.
"It's a little early to jump the gun and panic," he said.
Nevertheless, San Jose held an emergency meeting Monday night on gang violence in response to the spate of killings. At the packed meeting in the Santee neighborhood, police said recent budget cuts have meant fewer patrols and asked citizens to be vigilant in spotting and reporting crime.
Though city officials are taking note of the number of homicides, it's far too early in the year to worry, according to Franklin Zimring, a UC Berkeley law professor who specializes in criminal justice issues.
"It's the height of hysteria to start making long-range predictions or having long-range anxieties when last year's (five)... homicides are this year's eight homicides," he said.
Contrast is puzzling
He said the concern probably stems from the contrast to the last two years when the Bay Area's big cities saw homicide rates drop. There has been no persuasive explanation for the plunge, he said, so any potential change is going to cause concern.
Tina Moylan, president of the Russian Hill Neighbors group and a member of a police advisory board established by former Chief George Gascón, said her neighborhood is still reeling from the killing late last year of fashion publicist Kate Horan.
Gary Scott Holland was charged with murder, attempted rape, robbery and burglary after allegedly posing as a utility worker to gain access to her home. He has pleaded not guilty.
Moylan said she and her neighbors are troubled by news reports of one bizarre murder after another - and that she was particularly bothered by the story of the woman found charred in a car in the Lower Haight.
"I have no answer," she said. "But I will tell you that our neighborhood group and other neighborhoods are focusing on self-safety. I go out at night without jewelry, without a purse. I watch where we park our car. Some of these things are so random.
"No neighborhood is exempt."
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